Assessing uncertainty in climate simulations
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty Distribution Around Climate Models
This paper discusses the distribution of certainty around General Circulation Models (GCMs) – computer models used to project possible global climatic changes due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. It examines the trope of distance underpinning Donald MacKenzie’s concept of ‘certainty trough’, and calls for a more multi-dimensional and dynamic conceptualization of how uncertainty is distri...
متن کاملUncertainty in climate models.
Thomas M. Smith et al . ("how accurate are climate simulations?", Perspectives, 19 April, p. 483) suggest that today's climate models simulate the climate history of Earth over the past 150 years "within the observed uncertainty of the observations." In comparing model results with trends in sea surface temperature in several ocean basins, they estimate the uncertainty in model output arising f...
متن کاملUncertainty in climate science and climate policy
This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By ‘mainstream’ we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we wi...
متن کاملUncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in global crop yield simulations
Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are increasingly used for agro-environmental assessments and estimates of climate change impacts on food production. Recently, the influence of climate data and weather variability on GGCM outcomes has come under detailed scrutiny, unlike the influence of soil data. Here we compare yield variability caused by the soil type selected for GGCM simulations to weat...
متن کاملAssessing the Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCARs Community Atmosphere Model
The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 7...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature Climate Change
سال: 2007
ISSN: 1758-678X,1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/climate.2007.46a